Wednesday 1 August 2012

Waiting For Mario.

Another very quick post in-between work.

Well, we got one bother out of the way for another 40 days or so. Next we have to wait for "Believe me Mario" to see whether he delivers on his promised bazooka. My guess, he does not have much of a room to manoeuvre till Sept. when German Supreme court approves ESM. So another disappointment in store for BTFD crowed.

Again, I am not going to front run and short tomorrow morning. In fact I would not be shorting even when the market takes its 1st dive down. That would be the classical mistake to do. From the market thinking point of view, everyone and their grandma will short the market tomorrow when Mario fails to deliver. Because that would be the easiest thing and no-brainer trade. How can anyone not have a wining trade on the short side when the central bankers have failed to deliver on promised free money? Because the market is controlled by monkeys. You may have seen or heard about what happened today morning when the Algo went wrong and NYSE had to cancel trades. There were also some reports of TBTF banks conspiring to rig the derivative market apart from Libor rate.


I expect folks to get heavily in short position tomorrow and day after and I also expect these monkeys to kill those shorts and bears by jacking the market up. SPX 1400 may not be far off just because nobody is expecting it to come, after the disappointment of Bernanke and Mario. So be prepared for the unexpected surprise.

If SPX does reach 1390-1400 level, I would feel more confident to short. If that means waiting for a while more, so be it. After 25 years of trading, I am no more anxious to chase every up or down move and have learned to wait for the opportunity which has less risk. I am not right with all my entry but at least I am working with the primary goal: Do not lose capital!

Thanks for sharing my thoughts. Be safe out there.

13 comments:

  1. BB, awesome post. You're right - they'll try to kill the shorts. I was going to be one of them, but I'm with you - it's better to wait.

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  2. Thank you again BB for keeping us sane and forcing us to have patience and not indulging in non sense trades. Appreciate your post even when you are busy
    - Raghu

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  3. BB, thanks for your sharing once again. Full of uncertain thought as Asian markets do not fall much after the fed's news. It seems your prediction on one more up is possible now.

    try your best to share more during weekend!

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  4. Thanks Guys. Look at it this way, if I am wrong and the market does tank tomorrow , which I don't think, we will miss few points on the down side but we will still have our capital intact.
    On the other hand, if we are short in a rush, and front run, and the market does go up another 30 points, it will hurt and we will panic and close the short position with a loss.
    So the choice is safety 1st.

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  5. BB,
    I can't wait for the 8th,
    when you supposed to be back full time!
    Peeks

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  6. quad diverance on Sp500 MacD Daily...i think the market takes a dive right here right now

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    1. I think you wrote this around 1 PM eastern but what do you think now?
      I would not trade based on TA alone. Divergences take time to work out but I have learned that after 20 years.

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  7. I wish you posted more often. I always read your posts. Thanks!

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    1. I am just tied up with some extremely important work till 8th August and unable to devote time to the market. But I do post in between and we have not missed much.
      Thanks for reading my posts. Trade safe.

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  8. Great posts. Please please keep them coming!

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  9. BB, the way you read the market is more than awesome. The bounce is here, i was fortunate to close some shorts yesterday and added UWM as an hedge after reading your post. you save me some emotional butt kick

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    Replies
    1. Thank God I am able to help. I wish everyone acted like you and closed their short position.
      But seeing my twitter follower numbers, I do not think many did.

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